spiro.exe is a self-extracting zip file (48k). It contains a program written in Q-Basic that measures the probability of wars (or their absence) between liberal democracies, based on a hypergeometric distribution. Democracies were coded by Michael Doyle, and the data on war comes from the COW data-set (ICPSR 9044). The program tests for any period length between 1816 and 1980.
These results were reported in:
They were reprinted in Michael E. Brown, Sean M. Lynn-Jones, and Steven E. Miller, Debating the Democratic Peace (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1996).
First download the file by clicking below and then saving it. On an IBM compatible pc, simply run the file "spiro" and it will unpack itself. On other platforms use an unzip program.